The U.S. Drought Monitor, a critical tool in predicting water scarcity since its inception in 1999, is struggling to keep pace with the harsh realities of climate change, according to a study published in AGU Advances. The study specifically highlights the prolonged droughts currently plaguing the American West, and the subsequent impact on the monitor’s effectiveness.
The Drought Monitor was established during one of the driest periods in the history of the Southwest. However, it has not been updated to reflect the escalating aridity in the region, which may compromise its effectiveness. Despite these challenges, the Drought Monitor remains an indispensable resource providing an accurate snapshot of the prevailing climate conditions. It offers invaluable insights into the factors that contribute to drought conditions in the Southwest.
The information gleaned from the Drought Monitor has a substantial impact on both social and economic policies. It plays a pivotal role in triggering emergency drought declarations and determining the allocation of federal assistance. However, these resources can rapidly deplete if drought conditions persist for an extended period.
Experts are now suggesting that the Drought Monitor, which was not initially designed to be a climate change indicator, needs to adapt to long-term trends. Specifically, it should factor in the escalating water stress in the West to maintain its relevance and effectiveness.
Since 1999, the Drought Monitor has been the go-to source for vital data on soil moisture, temperature, and other elements that influence water supplies. It is instrumental in determining water supply forecasts, declaring drought emergencies, and deciding the allocation of government assistance.
However, the increasing length of dry spells in the American West, which significantly impact groundwater reserves and the Colorado River, are testing the limits of the Drought Monitor. It is clear that for this invaluable tool to continue its vital work, it must evolve to accurately reflect the changing realities of the climate.
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