Science4Data Article Insights

https://time.com/5852397/turchin-2020-prediction/

This Researcher Predicted 2020 Would Be Mayhem. Here's What He Says May Come Next

2020-06-16 00:00:00, Melissa Chan, Time

Content Categorization
/Sensitive Subjects
/People & Society

Word Count:
760

Words/Sentence:
38

Reading Time:
5.07 min

Reading Quality:
Adept

Readability:
13th to 15th

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The model showed social and economic turmoil in the U.S. would come to a boiling point in the years around 2020, Turchin wrote in his 2010 paper.

Worse conditions could still be coming.

Turchin says societal crises, which are triggered when pent-up pressures seek an outlet, can typically last for five to 15 years.

Using a computer model, he also factored in economic patterns-including declining wages, wealth inequality, exploding national debt and other social pressures that affect national stability-from the same time period.

Residents burn tires in almost-daily protests, according to the Associated Press.

Since Floyd's death on May 25, conversations about systemic racism and police brutality against Black men and women have spread across the nation and the globe.

In South Africa, for example, which is one of the world's most unequal countries, according to the World Bank, intense protests and anger over race and wealth inequality still rankle the country, 26 years after apartheid ended.

On top of that, Turchin says the COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened the wellbeing of large swaths of the American population-a leading driver of national instability-and could make the public less likely to trust government institutions.

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