The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon caused by the complex interactions between the ocean and atmosphere that has the potential to drastically alter global weather patterns. In the past, this has led to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves. Recently, the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the coming months has increased, potentially raising global temperatures even further and placing added strain on already vulnerable ecosystems.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is marked by a cycle between two phases—El Niño and La Niña—which occur irregularly every two to seven years. El Niño is an anomalous warming of the ocean surface in the Central and Eastern Pacific, while La Niña is an anomalous cooling in the same area. In September 2020 La Niña started, and now El Niño, with its potential to raise global temperatures, could be on the way this year.
Tracking the oscillation between the two phases is key for countries to be prepared for the potential impacts of El Niño or La Niña. Despite the presence of three La Niña cooling periods, the last eight years have been the hottest on record combined. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), while 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change, there is an estimated 93% likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record.
The current forecast is for a period of ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño or La Niña, to occur in the coming months from March to May. However there is still a decrease in the likelihood of these conditions continuing beyond May, therefore there is still the potential for El Niño to develop.
It is essential for countries to be aware of the possibilities posed by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in order to be better prepared for the potential drastic changes in global weather patterns. Tracking the oscillations between El Niño and La Niña can help with this, and with the likelihood of El Niño on the way, now is the time for countries and communities to ensure they are aware of the potential effects and have necessary mitigation plans in place.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon caused by the complex interactions between the ocean and atmosphere which has the potential to drastically alter global weather patterns. In the past, this has led to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Recently, the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the coming months has increased, potentially raising global temperatures even further and placing added strain on already vulnerable ecosystems. It is essential for countries to be aware of the possibilities posed by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in order to be better prepared for the potential drastic changes in global weather patterns.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is marked by a cycle between two phases—El Niño and La Niña—which occur irregularly every two to seven years. El Niño is an anomalous warming of the ocean surface in the Central and Eastern Pacific, while La Niña is an anomalous cooling in the same area. In September 2020 La Niña started, and now El Niño, with its potential to raise global temperatures, could be on the way this year.
Tracking the oscillation between the two phases is key for countries to be prepared for the potential impacts of El Niño or La Niña. Despite the presence of three La Niña cooling periods, the last eight years have been the hottest on record combined. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), while 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change, there is an estimated 93% likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record.
The current forecast is for a period of ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño or La Niña, to occur in the coming months from March to May. However there is still a decrease in the likelihood of these conditions continuing beyond May, therefore there is still the potential for El Niño to develop. This makes it all the more essential for countries to have necessary mitigation plans in place.
In order to better prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño or La Niña, countries must track the oscillations between the two phases. This will help with identifying areas of risk, as well as alerting communities to the need for improved infrastructure. Additionally, storing extra food, water, and medical supplies before El Niño and La Niña begin can help reduce the impact on vulnerable populations. Finally, implementing policies that emphasise the need for climate resilience is essential for future planning.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation can have far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, and as the likelihood of an El Niño developing increases, countries must begin to prepare for the potential changes that it could bring. Tracking the oscillations between El Niño and La Niña is the first step, and with the forecast of a period of ENSO-neutral conditions, now is the time for countries and communities to ensure they are aware of the potential effects and have necessary mitigation plans in place.
