October 11, 2024

Overshooting 1.5°C – The Urgent Call to Prevent Irreversible Climate Consequences

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The threat of global warming overshooting the safe limit carries with it irreversible consequences for our planet, one of which could potentially be a sea level rise of 40 centimeters. This is a stark reality we are forced to confront, as even a temporary exceedance of 1.5 degrees Celsius could result in disastrous repercussions. These include the thawing of permafrost and peatlands, which would release enormous amounts of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, exacerbating the climate crisis.

We currently find ourselves on a dangerous trajectory, with the goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius becoming increasingly unattainable due to the persistent rise of greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies have emphasized the need for rapid near-term emission reductions and the development of sustainable carbon dioxide removal technologies, to limit irreversible climate damages.

In order to effectively limit global warming, it has become necessary to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. This requires a significant scale-up of carbon removal processes, which will help mitigate the effects of climate change. Current strategies include reforestation, soil carbon sequestration, carbon capture and storage, and carbon mineralization.

However, recent research reveals a rather alarming fact – some climate damages will be irreversible even if we manage to reverse global temperature rise after a temporary “overshoot” of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This overshoot comes with significant uncertainties, including the risk of much higher levels of warming and irreversible consequences such as ecosystem loss.

Looking ahead, the world may need the capacity to remove hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 by the end of the century to hedge against the risk of higher-than-expected warming. This emphasizes the urgency of the situation and the need for immediate action. The future of our planet and generations to come hinge on our collective response to this global crisis. It’s not just about slowing down the rate of global warming, but reversing the damage already done, if we are to ensure a safe and sustainable future for all life on Earth.

 

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