The United States is bracing for the impacts of a strong El Niño, which is expected to increase snow and precipitation in certain regions. However, a federal climate report warns that the potential positives of this weather phenomenon could be offset by the looming threat of climate change.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment, a comprehensive and authoritative report on climate change and its impacts in the U.S., predicts a global temperature rise between 4.5 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit compared to pre-industrial times. This surpasses the set goals of both the U.S. and global community to control temperature rise and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
One of the stark revelations in the report indicates that the overall pattern of precipitation could change significantly in the future. While the instances of heavy precipitation may increase, leading to more floods, the overall precipitation including regular rainy or snowy days could decrease.
One of the consequences of rising global temperatures is the change in the form of precipitation. As temperatures rise, it is likely that more precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow. This change could consequently lead to a decrease in the duration of snowpack, affecting communities that rely on snowmelt for their water needs.
The largest declines in snowpack are expected to occur in the Northwest, New England, upper Midwest, and South, particularly along the Cascade Mountain Range. The implications of these declines are immense, especially for areas where snow is the primary source of runoff. The report predicts a decrease in total seasonal snow water volume by 24% by 2050 in these areas.
In states like Colorado, the situation is expected to worsen. Between 2036 and 2065, snowpacks in Colorado could decrease by between 0.2 and 1.5 inches. This reduction potentially threatens the water infrastructure and hydropower in the Southwest.
Despite these alarming predictions, there is a silver lining. Certain parts of the U.S., including the Northeast, Midwest, East Coast, and some parts of Washington state, are predicted to see an increase in average annual precipitation by mid-century. However, whether this increase will be enough to offset the losses remains question.
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