The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the planet’s lungs, may hit a critical tipping point by 2050, warns a study by the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil. This is largely due to rampant deforestation and the escalating effects of climate change, which could potentially lead to the collapse of the forest system in the next thirty years.
According to the research, between 10% and 47% of the Amazon is at risk of facing stresses that could push the ecosystem past its tipping point. These stresses include rising temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation, and fires, which are all factors contributing to an unstable ecosystem. The collapse of the Amazon would significantly affect the global fight against climate change.
The Amazon rainforest is an essential carbon sink, currently holding the equivalent of 15 to 20 years of the entire world’s carbon stores. Its collapse would not only drastically reduce its capacity to absorb carbon pollution, thereby exacerbating global warming, but the forest is already a net emitter of carbon emissions due to forest fires and logging.
South America’s water supply is deeply reliant on the Amazon, which contributes up to half of the continent’s rainfall through a process referred to as “flying rivers“. The degradation of the Amazon could also negatively impact other forests and ecosystems dependent on this rain, including the Pantanal wetlands and the La Plata River basin.
The study suggests several measures to prevent this potential ecological disaster. These include ending deforestation, promoting forest restoration, expanding protected areas and Indigenous territories, and advocating for global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Human-induced climate change could lead to a large-scale collapse of the Amazon rainforest system within the next three decades, threatening the global effort to combat climate change, the study warns.
The research underscores the importance of cooperation among Amazonian countries to promote forest restoration and global cooperation to cut greenhouse gas emissions. It serves as a stark reminder of the dire consequences if we fail to take immediate action to protect the Amazon and its critical role in the world’s climate system.
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