New research has presented a stark reality of the implications of climate change and warming waters on tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. According to the study, these cyclones are now over twice as likely to escalate into a major hurricane within a span of 24 hours. This emerging trend could drastically change how we prepare for and respond to these catastrophic weather events.
The research also indicates that hurricanes are now more likely to intensify rapidly along the U.S. East Coast compared to the timeframe from 1971 to 1990. Specifically, there has been a 25% increase in the average fastest rate at which storms intensify from this historical period to the modern period of 2001 to 2020. This rapid intensification is a critical factor since it can transform a relatively benign weather event into a major disaster with little notice.
Another alarming discovery is that the number of tropical cyclones that escalate from a Category 1 hurricane into a major hurricane within 36 hours has more than doubled since the 1970s and 1980s. This significant change is a consequence of the Atlantic Basin experiencing a rise in the frequency and intensity of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone events due to global warming.
The warming of the oceans over the past five decades is a major player in this evolving scenario. The oceans have absorbed 90% of the excess heat from climate change, which is contributing to the strengthening of cyclones in the Atlantic basin. This warming trend is altering the dynamics of tropical cyclones, making them more intense and potentially more destructive.
Interestingly, the regions experiencing the most dramatic and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones have shifted within the Atlantic Basin. This shift puts vulnerable and resource-poor communities at increased risk. Central American nations along the southwestern Caribbean Sea are among the communities facing an increased risk due to these shifting regions of cyclone intensification.
This new data reminds us that climate change is not a distant threat, but a current reality with immediate and potentially devastating effects. It underscores the urgency of addressing global warming to mitigate its impact on severe weather events and ultimately, our communities and livelihoods.
