The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a warning about the potential for El Nino to develop during the upcoming monsoon season. The transition from ENSO-neutral to El Nino is expected to occur with a 60% chance between May and July 2023 and an 80% chance between July and September. El Nino is often linked to droughts in regions of southern Asia, Indonesia, and Australia. WMO’s map on expected rainfall patterns during El Nino years shows dry periods in most parts of north, northeast, northwest, and central India during the June to September monsoon season.
Monsoon season is significant to India’s agriculture, which brings about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. WMO advises countries to prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves, and recommends monitoring and early warning systems to mitigate the impacts of El Niño. El Niño can also affect global food security, water resources, and public health.
Experts predict that the world may experience the most significant El Niño event in history, which could disrupt global food supplies, leading to higher prices and shortages in some areas. The El Niño could also lead to more frequent and severe weather events, including droughts, floods, and hurricanes. Scientists are calling for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the impact of the coming El Niño, which could lead to a rise in global temperatures surpassing the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
While El Nino’s potential impact on the monsoon season in India is concerning, its impact on global food security, water resources, and public health is equally alarming. Governments and organizations worldwide must take action to prepare for and mitigate the potential impacts of El Nino. Urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is also necessary to limit the impact of the coming El Nino and prevent the rise in global temperatures from exceeding the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
